Patriots vs Steelers Picks and Odds Week 2: Bet on Pittsburgh to Thrive at Home

After a brutal defeat at the hands of the Miami Dolphins, the New England Patriots travel to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers.

Pre-narration: Games between the Patriots and the Steelers used to be watch dates. Obviously that time is up, and it looks like we’re on a defensive path between the two of us as well on Sunday.

Take a look at our picks from Patriots vs. Steelers Week 2 on September 18.

Odds are as of 3:53 PM on 09/15/2022.

Patriots vs Steelers Picks Week 2

Best Bet: Steelers +2 (-110)

In many ways, the Steelers are a tough team to endorse. Pittsburgh was knocked out by the Cincinnati Bengals in the first week thanks to a deluge of transformations that they would be hard-pressed to spawn again.

The club also featured Chicago Bears Castoff Mitch Trubesky in their quarterback and lost their best player, accelerator TJ Watt’s pass, to injury to the Bengals.

For all the Steelers’ warts, we don’t see the Patriots as a team that should be favored on the road against all but the worst teams. Given that Pittsburgh hasn’t posted a losing season since Mike Tomlin took over in 2007—and its roster is still filled with talented players and defenders—it doesn’t fit that description.

The Patriots were nothing short of awful at their first week loss. A baffling attack led by Matt Patricia and Joe Judge produced just seven points and 271 total yards. To make matters on this side of the ball worse, McJones missed Thursday’s training due to an undisclosed illness.

As long as Bill Belichick is the coach, New Englanders will likely qualify in defense, but the unit lacks star power and is sorely missing from its former top corner, JC Jackson. The High School Patriots will be tested against the Steelers with serious receivers like Deontay Johnson, Chase Claypool and promising rookie George Pickens.

Basic stats: The Steelers are leading 13-4-1 in a row in their last 18 home games going back to 2020.

Quick selections

Less than 40 points (-118): These teams averaged 15 points to 20 early in the season, and there’s no reason to expect penalty shootouts here. Watt’s absence is a concern for the Steelers’ ability to suppress points, but we don’t imagine New Englanders benefiting.

Steelers will win in the first quarter (+145): We expect the Steelers to come out with a lot of energy in their house opener, but this bet has some more specific reasons behind it.

Teams tend to write gameplay call scripts early, making the first few leaderships a good showcase for superior attacking minds. We don’t see Steelers offensive coordinator Matt Canada as a genius, but we’re happy to support him against the Patricia/Judge Mayhem. For what it’s worth, Pittsburgh went up 10-3 in the first quarter of Week 1.

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Nick Ashburn writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: Tweet embed

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