Steelers Bets Against Browns Prop Thursday Night Football

Jacobi Brissett may not be the most reliable QB, but his total flowing yards seems too much to miss. That’s why he’s leading the charge in our favorite NFL player props for the Thursday Night Football game between the Steelers and Browns.

Last update: September 22, 2022 9:44 AM ET
Reading time: 4 minutes

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns will meet in a quick turn Thursday night in Ohio with the Browns pinning the 3.5-point favorite in a game featuring under-40 totals.

Pittsburgh’s offensive doesn’t look any better this season with Mitch Trubesky under center position while the defense will get a heavy dose of Cleveland’s ongoing game.

here is my Free NFL prop player picks Thursday night football between Steelers and Browns. Also be sure to check out Jason Logan Full betting analysis of the game for Thursday’s match.

Props Steelers vs Browns

Click on each selection to go to the full analysis.

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Steelers vs Props Brown TNF

The change from Ben Roethlisberger to Mitch Trubisky did almost nothing for this Pittsburgh offense. To open the season, Trubisky scored a negative EPA/play and CPOE impact in both games. He’s been rated as one of the worst quarterbacks in football in two weeks and must face the best defense he’s seen this season in Cleveland.

Trubisky currently ranks in the Justin Fields and Davis Mills area while also being only one of four QBs to post a success rate of 38% or worse. The pass rate measures the percentage of plays in which the EPA is > zero, which means that Trubisky takes the expected points off the board at each moment.

This is also Pittsburgh’s offense which ranked 31st in pass rate last season and with staff changes these marks haven’t improved to start the season. Trubisky doesn’t even know if he can call the voices heard on the line.

The former Chicago QB had a pass total of 217.5 last week against a bad high school in New England, and although his score has dropped to 207.5 this week, I think he’s still under-played in the short week.

Brown came to season as No. 4 in high school Opposition QBs versus negative CPOEs were held in both games to open the season. Miles Garrett could potentially hurt the game but that’s still a terrible Pittsburgh O streak.

Trubisky has not topped 195 yards in either game and is facing a tough game in a short week. Cleveland will rely on a running game and eat the clock while the expected close game should also mean Pittsburgh isn’t giving up on running. The Steelers are also one of the slowest-paced teams to play in the off-season to start the season.

Mitch Trubesky prop: under 207.5 passing yards (-115 in DraftKings)

Brown enters the short week with a huge advantage in the running game. Through two games, Cleveland ranked fourth in the league in EPA/rush and was doing so with an O-streak not at 100%. I doubt the handling of Jack Conklin’s suits on Thursday, but injuries to the O line don’t scare me away from betting on Brown’s fast attack.

I expect both backs to go on their total lunge yards, but in the short week I like Karim Hunt more because he lunged so well with Chubb in the lineup, and a quick turn-around can turn the players off from the start. Chubb rushed for 228 yards out of the gates, but I like my backup catch at over 42.5 yards sprinting Thursday night.

He’s hit The Over both games this season, plays 46% of the picks and is likely to get 11-14 carry in a game that should see the Browns run a ton against a quick Pittsburgh defense that allowed for the most explosive rushes a season before and finished 27th in the Rush EPA in 2021.

Hunt doesn’t gain yards like Chubb, but at 4.3 yards per carry, Hunt only needs a double-digit to hit this Over. Pittsburgh allowed both New England runners to hit their fast yards this past week.

Since Kevin Stefansky took charge in Cleveland, when he was Both Chubb and Hunt In the lineup, the Hunt averages over 11 loads per game for 49 yards at 4.58 yards per carry. The short week also makes me think Stefansky will finish his workload. There’s a reason his rush total jumped 10 points from week one.

Cream Hunt Prop: Over 42.5 yards (-114)

Covers NFL betting analysis

Jacobi Brissett ran for 43 yards last week with a long 21 yards, but the books still give us the same second week total of 9.5 — a number he topped in both games this season.

During his 39 NFL career, Brissett averaged 22.4 yards per game, and in what is expected to be a close divisional game, Brissett may have to extend play and rush from start to finish.

Brissett defended seven times for 50 yards to start the season and ran the ball three times on designed trails. He is one of the slower QBs to throw the ball which means he has a greater chance of feeling the pressure and taking off.

With TJ Watt out and linebacker Devin Bush not at 100%, Pittsburgh’s defense is slower. Joe Burrow had 46 yards on the floor against the Steelers in Week 1 while Mac Jones also topped the total dash last week.

Jacobi Brissett prop: over 9.5 yards (-110 at bet365)

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