Both teams come into week three with identical 1-1 records, but for much different reasons. The Clevelands had the mother of all heart setbacks while the Steelers’ offense was lifeless. The NFL’s betting picks highlight why Brown should be back in the first half.
AFC North takes center stage in the third week With the Pittsburgh Steelers visiting the Cleveland Browns on Sept. 22 for Thursday Night Football — and we’ll break up the difference and the totalWe give our best NFL Betting Picks and Predictions.
Pittsburgh stands at 1-1, but comes off an ugly outing in New England in the second week, as the offensive battled for gains and the black and yellow loyalists called for a change in midfield. start QB Mitchell Trubesky He can’t push the ball down the field, sparking rumors of him being transferred to a novice Kenny Beckett.
Cleveland doesn’t have to wait long to exorcise the ghosts of the historic New York Jets meltdown on Sunday. Brown failed to advance 30-17 with less than two minutes remaining, but that didn’t affect the early move from the climb on Cleveland’s spread.
Best odds between Steelers and Browns
Steelers vs Browns Picks & Predictions
Cleveland wants to get rid of the smell of an epic second-week meltdown as quickly as possible and have a good chance of swinging against a Pittsburgh defense already working on fumes to start 2022.
The Steelers’ unit has been on the field for more than 77 minutes in the first two games, and is now playing in a short week against an extremely physically impulsive Browns attack. Cleveland delivers roughly 55% of the picks and has relentless power from the ground and the pound Nick Chubb And the cream huntwho ranked fourth in this EPA’s running game per delivery after two weeks.
Not only did the Browns dominate possession time (#3 in the TOP) by moving the chains in 29% of the first touchdown, but their cadence put the teams on their heels in the first 30 minutes – and they are the eighth-fastest pace in terms of seconds. Per game in the first half (27.38). That early urgency and exit from the rally could break the steel curtain before the break.
Cleveland is No. 2 on the 1H Offense DVOA in the Football Outsiders, and while the Steelers are third for 1H Defensive DVOA, Pittsburgh is in a more difficult position considering their defense workload, short week road play, and supplemental offense ranking second in terms of Worst in the first fall. The Steelers have a success rate of just 38.7% in two weeks, including a 37.9% rate in the first half.
With the spread soaring, last Sunday’s bluff might scare the Browns bookmakers from spreading the whole game, but I’m comfortable putting Cleveland -3 at home in the first 30 minutes.
best bet: Brown first half -3 (-110 at bet365)
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Steelers vs Browns betting preview
The Lookahead streak is set for this classic Cleveland-4 rivalry following news of Deshaun Watson’s suspension in the summer. The spread reopened as low as the Browns -3.5 Sunday night in the wake of Cleveland’s collapse in front of the Jets.
Cleveland had that game in hand, but a late score from Nick Chap — rather than kneel down and the clock ran out — left the window open for New York. The Jets will score and recover a side kick before touching the green light with 22 seconds remaining. It was a miraculous ending that does not reflect how much Brown had dominated in the other 58 minutes of play.
Cleveland also received a better-than-expected performance from the veteran QB Jacobi Brisset, who finished week two with 229 yards in 22 of 27 passes — averaging 8.5 yards per attempt. That’s a lot better than what we’ve seen from Trubisky, who is capturing just over five yards per pass to start 2022.
That view led to early action in this game, and the professional betting groups had a shorter spread on Monday – shocking Cleveland from -3.5 to -5.5 in the first 48 hours of action. There are some injuries to Brown’s defensive line, which is keeping some markets as low as -4.5 and -5.
This line contrasts with what some sportsbook operators report in terms of splits. DraftKings took 73% of the bets and 72% of its early money in Pittsburgh as a loser on the road – the crowd also seemed to get nervous about Brown – but smart players give Cleveland the edge of the doubt.
Covers NFL betting analysis
Over / Under Analysis
The Over/Un total opened around 40 to 40.5 points and early play bombed the Under team, dropping that number as low as 38 points in some stores.
Both offenses are central, with Brown delivering nearly 55% of the shots to start the year, and the Steelers not only seeing poor production but putting together a weak offensive line against a rush of Cleveland passes that could get bags without bringing in more bats.
Pittsburgh’s defense – despite its fall to All-Pro TJ Watt – is still a force. The Steelers only allowed 37 points in regulation through two games and is sixth in the EPA allowed per game while also scoring six (5 INT, 1 FFR).
In two meetings in 2021, with Ben Roethlisberger and Baker Mayfield under center (arguably the best QBs), the Browns & Steelers had closing totals of 43 and 43.5 points. lower produced The winners in each of those meetings, accumulating only 25 and 40 points.
Steelers vs Browns betting trend to know
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is a 9-5-1 SU in Cleveland during his tenure at Steel City (since 2007), with those games ending 5-10 Over/Un (66.7% Underers). find more NFL betting trends For Steelers vs. Browns.
Game information Steelers vs Browns
• Site: First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio
• DateThursday, September 22, 2022
• Starting: 8:15 p.m. Eastern time
• Television: Amazon Prime Video