Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley’s chief global economist, warned that “the worst of the global economic slowdown is ahead” in a recent edition of the company’s Market Thoughts podcast titled Keep track of the next slowdown. Mr. Carpenter believes there is a “storm brewing” of recession risks around the world.
Thanks to Russia, the risks of recession are concentrated in Europe. Higher energy costs caused by geopolitical factors are a cost shock that will limit growth. There are industries that are already rationing energy to save costs at the expense of production, which is contributing to the slowdown. The purchasing power of consumers has been severely restricted due to high energy bills.
Mr. Carpenter is also concerned about the British economy as the recently announced fiscal stimulus measures will only reduce the depth of a potential recession. The UK is vulnerable to rising energy costs despite leaving the EU and trade relations remain problematic.
Morgan Stanley does not believe that the recovery of the Chinese economy can significantly compensate for the global slowdown. It expects sub-consensus GDP growth of 2.75 percent for 2022, which is well below potential. Ongoing turmoil in the nation’s housing market, combined with COVID lockdowns, will limit growth to 5.25 percent in 2023, according to Mr. Carpenter. This growth is not strong enough to be a “game changer” for advanced economies in his estimation.
In a sign of continued strong job growth in the country, the economist expects the US to avoid a recession. However, the Fed will not stop raising rates until growth slows significantly. For Morgan Stanley, this means that in the short term there is “only a downside” to economic growth and earnings growth.
Canadian investors should be cautious about adding economically sensitive exposure, including non-energy and industrial goods, to their portfolios in the near term. Deals in these sectors may emerge in the event of a slowdown.
— Scott Barlow, Market Strategist, Globe and Mail
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stock to think
Park Lone Corp. (PLC-T) To date, the stock price of this funeral home operator is down 26 percent, making it the worst performer in the consumer discretionary S&P/TSX SmallCap segment. However, the stock has a unanimous buy recommendation from nine analysts, and its average one-year price target suggests the stock price could rise nearly 64 percent over the next year. as such Jennifer Dottie tells usHowever, bargain hunters may want to put this dividend stock on their radar because the stock price may be approaching the bottom.
Boyd Group Services Inc. (T WorldWinnipeg-based Boyd operates a network of unlicensed collision repair centers across North America. The majority of its revenue comes from south of the border, which means Boyd is benefiting from a stronger US dollar. The stock is trading at a reasonable valuation and the company is seeing an improvement in its balance sheet as well as a positive earnings outlook. Jennifer Dottie Looking at the investment case.
Bull markets are great for acquisition activity. Bear markets, not so much
When stocks go down, bargain hunters get busy. That is why the recent turmoil in the market has raised hopes that the number of corporate acquisitions will rise again, rewarding shareholders with attractive offers. What is the problem with this optimism? Acquisition activity tends to decline when markets are in turmoil. David Berman tell us more.
Do you want to profit from the stock deals of American politicians? New ETFs aim to do exactly that
Two new exchange-traded funds are seeking regulatory approval to list on a US stock exchange to track stock selections for members of the US Congress and their families. Opinion polls, spurred on by what has been revealed in the media over the years, show that a majority of Americans believe politicians on Capitol Hill are using inside information from closed meetings of committees and other congressional gatherings to buy and sell shares that will be affected by legislative changes. As a result, they are believed to be well-connected investors who outperform the stock market. But will new ETFs really do the trick? Larry MacDonald He has some ideas.
TSX Stock Picks: What Top Analysts Recommend
Over 8,000 analysts at North American investment brokerage firms have been rated by TipRanks.com and about five percent of them have the highest rating in the five-star survey, based on how often they are right and their average returns. During the week ending September 16, several five-star analysts issued or reiterated buy recommendations for Canadian stocks; Less than two dozen picks are set at target prices meaning a gain of more than 20 percent in their stock over the next 12 months. Larry MacDonald Browse the menu.
Once again hit markets are ignoring Putin’s warnings at their own risk
Earlier this year, markets were complacent with Russia massing its forces on the Ukrainian border. Now, they are again largely ignoring Vladimir Putin’s indication that he might be willing to use nuclear weapons. Some say Markets reduce risk.
Big Vanguard Managers Optimistic About US Treasuries As Federal Reserve Increases Approach Peak
Vanguard, the world’s second largest asset manager, believes that US Treasuries are nearing the end of a painful decline even as prices have fallen to multi-year lows, The company’s senior portfolio manager told Reuters.
For energy investors, this time is really different – and these three stocks should do especially well
The world is in an energy crisis. High demand meets low supply, and businesses and households face high costs or no energy together. At the same time, the world is looking with increasing urgency to find solutions to avert climate catastrophe. Among this chaos, there is an opportunity for investors who are able to look through the noise, Chris Horwood of Orbis Investments argues.
Other (for subscribers)
Tuesday’s Insider Report: CEO Investing $1 Million In This Financial Stock That Recently Rises To A New High
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